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Developing a Toolbox for Scenario-Based Foresight

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Ködding

    (University of Paderborn)

  • Christian Koldewey

    (University of Paderborn)

  • Roman Dumitrescu

    (University of Paderborn
    Fraunhofer Institute for Mechatronic Systems Design)

Abstract

Scenario-based foresight enables companies to remain competitive in rapidly changing and complex environments by systematically dealing with the future. Yet, its use in practice has decreased significantly. One major challenge is the design of a scenario process that is customized to the unique requirements of a new scenario project. Specifically, practitioners are faced with selecting suitable methodical approaches and supporting digital tools out of a high number of possibilities. A comprehensive, structured overview of methods and tools is missing. In this paper, we develop a toolbox for scenario-based foresight using design science research. The toolbox consists of 79 method building blocks and 9 tool building blocks. The building blocks enable practitioners to design their customized scenario process and to select the appropriate digital tools with low effort during the preparation phase of a scenario project. The applicability of the toolbox is shown using a previously conducted scenario project.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Ködding & Christian Koldewey & Roman Dumitrescu, 2025. "Developing a Toolbox for Scenario-Based Foresight," Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics,, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:prbchp:978-3-031-72490-9_53
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-72490-9_53
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