Modeling and Forecasting Social Processes in the Labor Market

One of the key directions for improving the economic governance system is the modeling and forecasting of social processes in the market development. With this task comes the need for research intensification in the field of forecast calculations and means of ensuring the proper discharge of managerial decisions’ improvement. The problem is compounded by the fact that the goals and interests of the entities of public administration are formed not only based on relations about management but also under the influence of many other relations that take place between people in the social and economic systems. In other words, the behavior of economic entities is the result of the interaction of internal and external factors. This raises the problem of choosing a mechanism that takes into account these interactions and allows to foresee the consequences of the planned actions. The purpose of the study is to formalize the results of panel sociological studies of the strategies of economic behavior of workers in the labor market in 2008 and 2016 to form a discrete model on the basis of which it is possible to predict the state of socioeconomic processes in the labor market and which can be used as the basis for a model to improve the efficiency of management in the labor market through the formation of the necessary structure of strategies of economic behavior of workers. The main method used in the study is the method of mathematical similarity, which will allow through formalized descriptions to reflect the functionality of the labor market system and through structural similarity to reflect the internal structure of the labor market system, identify subsystems, and establish relationships with them. The model in this case is a hypothesis that allows us to anticipate trends inherent in the labor market and check how reliable our knowledge about the labor market is and how effectively it is managed by the state. The result of the study is a discrete model of the distribution of strategies of economic behavior of workers in the labor market based on the diffusion equation. The discrete model made it possible to form static images of the system under study—the labor market. The dynamic picture of the development of the system under study was obtained on the basis of the formation of a set of static images corresponding to the 8-year development periods laid down by the model. This made it possible to predict the state of the labor market for 2024 on the basis of the constructed mathematical model of the strategies of economic behavior of employees. The stability and verification of the results obtained made it possible to develop a simulation model for improving the efficiency of management in the labor market through influencing the formation of the necessary structure of strategies for economic behavior of employees.