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Retail Demand Forecasting for Small-Medium Enterprises During COVID-19 Pandemic: Case Studies Based on Romanian Convenience Stores

In: Navigating Through the Crisis – A special Issue on the Covid 19 Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Emanuel-Emil Savan

    (Faculty of Business, Babes-Bolyai University)

  • Oana Gica

    (Faculty of Business, Babes-Bolyai University)

  • Aurelian Sofica

    (Faculty of Business, Babes-Bolyai University)

Abstract

During the current crisis generated by the COVID-19 pandemic, most businesses are facing serious challenges, e.g. supply chain disruptions, extra direct costs, changes in demand, or digital experience. Even those sectors which prosper or did not experience a significant drop in demand are reporting other difficulties and require decision-making support. In this context the carried work captures the impact of the current crisis on the small-medium enterprises (SMEs) which operate in the Romanian food and grocery market (FGM), by analysing a case study based on three different local proximity stores and explores the application of time series analysis. In addition to identifying the challenges brought by the pandemic, the carried literature review reveals an increase in competition on the proximity sector of the Romanian FGM, and it highlights the importance of demand forecasting for improving managerial decision-making. The data analysis provides a number of insights regarding the pandemic’s impact on the case study SME, e.g. it generated an increase in sales (especially in the first 2 months), it increased the value of the shopping basket and reduced the number of individual customers, and it altered the percentage distribution of product categories.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuel-Emil Savan & Oana Gica & Aurelian Sofica, 2022. "Retail Demand Forecasting for Small-Medium Enterprises During COVID-19 Pandemic: Case Studies Based on Romanian Convenience Stores," Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics, in: Silvia L. Fotea & Ioan Ş. Fotea & Sebastian Văduva (ed.), Navigating Through the Crisis – A special Issue on the Covid 19 Crises, chapter 0, pages 101-131, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:prbchp:978-3-030-82755-7_7
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-82755-7_7
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