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On the Spot and Map: Interactive Model-Based Policy Support Under Deep Uncertainty

In: Policy Analytics, Modelling, and Informatics

Author

Listed:
  • Erik Pruyt

    (Delft University of Technology)

  • Tushith Islam

    (Delft University of Technology
    Greenwood Strategic Advisors)

  • Thomas Arzt

    (SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation GmbH)

Abstract

In this chapter, we discuss and demonstrate the use of ‘on the spot’ and ‘on the map’ scenario exploration and policy-support in workshop settings. First we justify the need for exploratory model-based policy workshops. Then we present some methods and techniques needed for these workshops. Special attention is paid to new techniques we believe are crucially needed for this kind of interactive workshop if time is of the essence, namely (1) techniques to quickly generate small but diverse ensembles of alternative scenarios, and (2) techniques to visualize whole-system dynamics on maps by means of geospatial animations. We subsequently describe a workshop related to the 2015–2016 European refugee crisis for which this approach and these techniques were developed and used. Finally, we discuss shortcomings and improvements to deal with these shortcomings and conclude.

Suggested Citation

  • Erik Pruyt & Tushith Islam & Thomas Arzt, 2018. "On the Spot and Map: Interactive Model-Based Policy Support Under Deep Uncertainty," Public Administration and Information Technology, in: J Ramon Gil-Garcia & Theresa A. Pardo & Luis F. Luna-Reyes (ed.), Policy Analytics, Modelling, and Informatics, pages 315-342, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:paitcp:978-3-319-61762-6_14
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-61762-6_14
    as

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