IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/spr/oprchp/978-3-319-07001-8_35.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Measurement of Risk for Wind Energy Projects: A Critical Analysis of Full Load Hours

In: Operations Research Proceedings 2013

Author

Listed:
  • André Koukal

    (Leibniz Universität Hannover)

  • Stefan Lange

    (Leibniz Universität Hannover)

  • Michael H. Breitner

    (Leibniz Universität Hannover)

Abstract

In scientific literature, profitability analyses of on- and offshore wind energy projects and assessments of general conditions for such projects usually make use of the full load hours (FLH) key figure to determine the annually produced energy. They also serve for the calculation of the project value and other financial key figures. This procedure leads to accurate results if only the expected value of each parameter is taken into account. However, it is difficult to choose an adequate type of distribution and to define suitable distribution parameters for the FLH when project risks are considered. In this paper, a different approach using the more basic parameter of the average wind speed and a Weibull distribution in combination with the technical availability and other discounts is provided. It aims at estimating the annual electricity generation by simultaneously taking uncertainties into account. This approach is integrated into a discounted cash flow (DCF) model on which a Monte Carlo simulation is applied. Finally, a case study for a fictitious offshore wind park in the German North Sea is conducted. It is shown that the application of the presented approach leads to more precise distributions of the outcomes than the standard analysis with FLH.

Suggested Citation

  • André Koukal & Stefan Lange & Michael H. Breitner, 2014. "Measurement of Risk for Wind Energy Projects: A Critical Analysis of Full Load Hours," Operations Research Proceedings, in: Dennis Huisman & Ilse Louwerse & Albert P.M. Wagelmans (ed.), Operations Research Proceedings 2013, edition 127, pages 255-261, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:oprchp:978-3-319-07001-8_35
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-07001-8_35
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:oprchp:978-3-319-07001-8_35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.