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Insourcing the Passenger Demand Forecasting System for Revenue Management at DB Fernverkehr: Lessons Learned from the First Year

In: Operations Research Proceedings 2019

Author

Listed:
  • Valentin Wagner

    (DB Fernverkehr AG)

  • Stephan Dlugosz

    (DB Fernverkehr AG)

  • Sang-Hyeun Park

    (DB Fernverkehr AG)

  • Philipp Bartke

    (DB Fernverkehr AG)

Abstract

The long-distance traffic division of Deutsche Bahn (DB) uses a revenue management system to sell train-tickets to more than 140 million passengers per year. One essential component of a successful Railway Revenue Management system is an accurate forecast of future demand. To benefit from a tighter integration, DB decided in 2017 to develop its own forecast environment PAUL (Prognose AUsLastung) to replace the legacy third-party forecasting system. This paper presents the conceptual and technical setup of PAUL. Furthermore, experiences of the first year using PAUL as a production forecast environment are presented: It turned out that PAUL has a higher forecasting quality than the predecessor system and that the insourcing led to a constructive collaboration of PAUL system experts and revenue managers, which is beneficial for identifying opportunities for improvement.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentin Wagner & Stephan Dlugosz & Sang-Hyeun Park & Philipp Bartke, 2020. "Insourcing the Passenger Demand Forecasting System for Revenue Management at DB Fernverkehr: Lessons Learned from the First Year," Operations Research Proceedings, in: Janis S. Neufeld & Udo Buscher & Rainer Lasch & Dominik Möst & Jörn Schönberger (ed.), Operations Research Proceedings 2019, pages 625-631, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:oprchp:978-3-030-48439-2_76
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-48439-2_76
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    Cited by:

    1. Sieg, Gernot & Wessel, Jan, 2022. "I would if I could: Passing through VAT reductions in the german rail industry," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).

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    Keywords

    Forecasting system; Revenue management;

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