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Dynamic Risk Assessment of Urban Renewal EPC Project Based on “Vulnerability-Threat” Theory

In: Proceedings of the 28th International Symposium on Advancement of Construction Management and Real Estate

Author

Listed:
  • Pengcheng Xiang

    (Chongqing University)

  • Mingmin Hao

    (School of Chongqing University)

  • Ruisi Jing

    (School of Chongqing University)

Abstract

With urban renewal work in full swing, promoting the use of the engineering contracting (EPC) method in projects with more complex renewal content is an important initiative to promote high-quality urban renewal. The differences in natural, economic, political, social and human environments that urban renewal EPC projects face lead to various risks in the process, and scientific assessment of urban renewal EPC project risks is essential. Based on the theory of urban symbiotic system and organic urban renewal, this paper extends the single static risk assessment to construct a two-pronged risk assessment index system and assessment model of “internal vulnerability-external threat” from an ecological perspective. Through Chongqing Yuzhong as the case area, the entropy-weighted fuzzy integrated hierarchical evaluation method is used to analyze the risk factors affecting urban renewal EPC projects. The results show that from the overall risk assessment the overall risk level of urban renewal EPC projects in Chongqing is low, external policy risk and public sentiment risk are the most important risk factors in the process of urban renewal EPC projects, and internal contract risk is also a key concern for urban renewal projects. Finally, we propose corresponding preventive measures and contingency plans for such risks to provide theoretical guidance for urban renewal work.

Suggested Citation

  • Pengcheng Xiang & Mingmin Hao & Ruisi Jing, 2024. "Dynamic Risk Assessment of Urban Renewal EPC Project Based on “Vulnerability-Threat” Theory," Lecture Notes in Operations Research, in: Dezhi Li & Patrick X. W. Zou & Jingfeng Yuan & Qian Wang & Yi Peng (ed.), Proceedings of the 28th International Symposium on Advancement of Construction Management and Real Estate, chapter 0, pages 251-266, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:lnopch:978-981-97-1949-5_18
    DOI: 10.1007/978-981-97-1949-5_18
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