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Snow Avalanche Hazard Prediction Using the Best-Worst Method—Case Study: The Šar Mountains, Serbia

In: Advances in Best-Worst Method

Author

Listed:
  • Uroš Durlević

    (University of Belgrade)

  • Ivan Novković

    (University of Belgrade)

  • Senka Bajić

    (University of Novi Sad)

  • Miroljub Milinčić

    (University of Belgrade)

  • Aleksandar Valjarević

    (University of Belgrade)

  • Nina Čegar

    (University of Belgrade)

  • Tin Lukić

    (University of Novi Sad)

Abstract

Snow avalanches are one of the most frequent natural hazards in high mountain regions. In this study, a map of the susceptibility of the Šar Mountains to snow avalanches was determined. The study area is located in the southern part of Serbia, which has the Status of a National park. Geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing are used to analysis and cartographical presentation of nine the most important elements of natural conditions which have an influence on avalanche development. Then, by applying the best-worst method (BWM) for each of the criteria was given a weighting coefficient depending on its importance for the avalanche occurrence. A synthetic map of snow avalanche susceptibility was created by processing geospatial data in the GIS software. The obtained results show that high susceptibility covers 16.9% of the territory, while 10.7% of the total area is very highly susceptible. The final results may be useful to decision-makers, local self-governments, emergency management services, and mountaineering services to mitigate human and material losses from snow avalanches. This study is the first to use the BWM methodology for snow avalanche hazard analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Uroš Durlević & Ivan Novković & Senka Bajić & Miroljub Milinčić & Aleksandar Valjarević & Nina Čegar & Tin Lukić, 2023. "Snow Avalanche Hazard Prediction Using the Best-Worst Method—Case Study: The Šar Mountains, Serbia," Lecture Notes in Operations Research, in: Jafar Rezaei & Matteo Brunelli & Majid Mohammadi (ed.), Advances in Best-Worst Method, chapter 0, pages 211-226, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:lnopch:978-3-031-40328-6_12
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-40328-6_12
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