A Multi-Perspective Approach for Exploring the Scenario Space of Future Power Systems

There are many possible future energy systems. We explore the range of parameter uncertainty and quantify parameter interrelations to generate hundreds of scenarios for Germany. Only sensible parameter combinations remain as inputs to an energy system optimization and coupled models. In the past, computational limitations have been a major obstacle to calculate such an enormous space of scenarios. In contrast, we use high-performance computing. To utilize high-performance computing (HPC) efficiently, the parallel solver for linear programs PIPS-IPM++ is applied. We integrate it into a tool chain of different components including scenario generation, energy system optimization and results evaluation and couple a large diversity of software packages in a fully automated HPC workflow. This enables the calculation of all scenarios in a matter of days. Furthermore, we use a set of 37 indicators to provide a comprehensive assessment of the simulated energy systems. In this way, we cover multiple perspectives, such as system adequacy, security of supply or behavior of market actors. Whereas scenarios with already expanded capacities do not lead to clear results, a “green field” approach or higher spatial resolution do. Yet, we identified three clusters of scenarios. This allows to study disruptive events like price shocks in a vast parameter space and to identify countermeasures for the long-term.