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Prediction and Analysis of Chinese Water Resource: A System Dynamics Approach

In: AI and Analytics for Smart Cities and Service Systems

Author

Listed:
  • Qi Zhou

    (Beijing Jiaotong University)

  • Tianyue Yang

    (Beijing Jiaotong University)

  • Yangqi Jiao

    (Beijing Jiaotong University)

  • Kanglin Liu

    (Beijing Jiaotong University)

Abstract

The data show that the shortage and deterioration of water resources have brought serious impact on China, and these problems need to be solved. In this paper, the four causal chains of China’s water resources system are constructed by comprehensively considering the factors of population, society and economic development, and the system dynamics method for forecasting China’s water resources demand from 2013 to 2025 is established. Based on the analysis of the proposed water system dynamics model, the total water demand, water conservancy investment and water recycling in China under different water resources strategies are predicted. Under the water resources strategy of high investment in water conservancy facilities, low wastewater discharge rate and high wastewater purification rate, the total water demand in China in 2025 will be about 722 billion M3, the investment in water conservancy facilities will exceed 6815 billion yuan and the recycled water will exceed 43 billion M3. In addition to population and economic factors, we also pay attention to environmental factors. In addition, we introduce water shortage coefficient and environmental pollution coefficient to evaluate the environmental benefits of different policies. From the perspective of our sustainability model and integrated numerical results, several interesting management insights were observed. For example, by reducing the discharge of domestic and production sewage, improving the sewage purification rate and investment in water infrastructure, the water shortage coefficient will be reduced by about 8.96%, and the environmental pollution coefficient will be reduced by about 14.8%, which is conducive to promoting the future development of China’s water resources, as well as the environment and economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Qi Zhou & Tianyue Yang & Yangqi Jiao & Kanglin Liu, 2021. "Prediction and Analysis of Chinese Water Resource: A System Dynamics Approach," Lecture Notes in Operations Research, in: Robin Qiu & Kelly Lyons & Weiwei Chen (ed.), AI and Analytics for Smart Cities and Service Systems, pages 197-211, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:lnopch:978-3-030-90275-9_17
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-90275-9_17
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