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Structured Modeling for Coping with Uncertainty in Complex Problems

In: Coping with Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • M. Makowski

    (International Institute for Applied System Analysis)

Abstract

Uncertainty is a key issue in many public debates and policy making, including climate change, pension systems, and integrated management of catastrophic risks. Rational treatment of uncertainty in many such situations requires new methods not only for the appropriate handling of endogenous uncertainties but also for modeling complex problems. The paper first outlines the key issues related to uncertainties and risks, including some pitfalls of using traditional methods in situations when they are inappropriate. Then, new methods of modeling endogenous uncertainties and catastrophic risks are summarized. Next, structured modeling technology developed for handling the whole modeling process of model-based support for solving complex problems is discussed. The development of the presented methods has been motivated by actual policymaking issues, and the methods have been applied to complex problems. However, the presentation is deliberately kept at a level comprehensible to a broad audience.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Makowski, 2006. "Structured Modeling for Coping with Uncertainty in Complex Problems," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, in: Coping with Uncertainty, pages 47-64, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:lnechp:978-3-540-35262-4_3
    DOI: 10.1007/3-540-35262-7_3
    as

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