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Stochastic Programming Based PERT Modeling

In: Coping with Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • A. Gouda

    (Budapest University of Technology and Economics)

  • D. Monhor

    (Western Hungarian University)

  • T. Szántai

    (Budapest University of Technology and Economics)

Abstract

Main drawback of the traditional PERT modeling is that the probabilistic characteristics determined for the project completion time are only valid when it is supposed that any activity can be started promtly after executing all of its predecessor activities. This is possible in the case of scheduling computer tasks, however it is hardly possible in many other cases, like architectural project planning what is one of the the most important applicational areas of PERT modeling. In the paper a stochastic programming based PERT modeling will be introduced. This modeling will produce deterministic earliest starting times for the activities of the project. These deterministic starting times will be attainable with prescribed probability. So we also get an estimated project completion time what is attainable with the same prescribed probability. Numerical examples will be given for comparing the traditional and the newly introduced PERT modeling techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Gouda & D. Monhor & T. Szántai, 2006. "Stochastic Programming Based PERT Modeling," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, in: Coping with Uncertainty, pages 241-255, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:lnechp:978-3-540-35262-4_14
    DOI: 10.1007/3-540-35262-7_14
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