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Elicitation: State of the Art and Science

In: Elicitation

Author

Listed:
  • Luis C. Dias

    (CeBER and INESC Coimbra, University of Coimbra)

  • Alec Morton

    (University of Strathclyde)

  • John Quigley

    (University of Strathclyde)

Abstract

This book is about elicitation, which may be defined as the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement, whether about matters of fact or matters of value. To motivate, we review case studies from human health (swine flu); provision of public services (airport location); natural hazards (assessment of the risk of earthquakes) and environmental protection (in the case of radioactive waste) where elicitation was or could have been profitably used to inform decisions. It is often argued that uncertainties are too deep or human values are too profound for quantitative thinking to be applicable: we argue on the contrary (drawing again on cases) that it is impossible to think about important problems without dealing with problems of “how big” and “how much”. We provide an overview of chapters in the book, which, we argue, shows that there is a huge body of knowledge and expertise about how to elicit both probabilities and preferences in important social problems, and conclude with future trends that make the subject of this book (in our view) particularly timely.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis C. Dias & Alec Morton & John Quigley, 2018. "Elicitation: State of the Art and Science," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Luis C. Dias & Alec Morton & John Quigley (ed.), Elicitation, chapter 0, pages 1-14, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:isochp:978-3-319-65052-4_1
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4_1
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    Cited by:

    1. Cinelli, Marco & Kadziński, Miłosz & Gonzalez, Michael & Słowiński, Roman, 2020. "How to support the application of multiple criteria decision analysis? Let us start with a comprehensive taxonomy," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    2. David Rios Insua & Aitor Couce‐Vieira & Jose A. Rubio & Wolter Pieters & Katsiaryna Labunets & Daniel G. Rasines, 2021. "An Adversarial Risk Analysis Framework for Cybersecurity," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(1), pages 16-36, January.
    3. Cinelli, Marco & Kadziński, Miłosz & Miebs, Grzegorz & Gonzalez, Michael & Słowiński, Roman, 2022. "Recommending multiple criteria decision analysis methods with a new taxonomy-based decision support system," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 302(2), pages 633-651.
    4. Aitor Couce-Vieira & David Rios Insua & Alex Kosgodagan, 2020. "Assessing and Forecasting Cybersecurity Impacts," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 356-374, December.

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