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Forecasting

In: Inventory Control

Author

Listed:
  • Sven Axsäter

    (Lund University)

Abstract

There are two main reasons why an inventory control system needs to order items some time before customers demand them. First, there is nearly always a lead-time between the ordering time and the delivery time. Second, due to certain ordering costs, it is often necessary to order in batches instead of unit for unit. These two reasons mean that we need to look ahead and forecast the future demand. A demand forecast is an estimated average of the demand size over some future period. But it is not enough to estimate the average demand. We also need to determine how uncertain the forecast is. If the forecast is more uncertain, a larger safety stock is required. Consequently, it is also necessary to estimate the forecast error, which may be represented by the standard deviation or the so-called Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD).

Suggested Citation

  • Sven Axsäter, 2015. "Forecasting," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Inventory Control, edition 3, chapter 2, pages 7-35, Springer.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:isochp:978-3-319-15729-0_2
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-15729-0_2
    as

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