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Analyzing Decisions Under Uncertainty: Simple Tools of the Heathens

In: Behavioral Decision Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos

    (Centre for Operational Research, Management Science and Information Systems and Centre for Behavioural Action and Research, University of Southampton Business School)

Abstract

A major obstacle for engaging with standard decision analysis is that one must reduce uncertainty to risk. This chapter contributes to situations where uncertainty cannot be meaningfully reduced to risk. I synthesize findings and perspectives of behavioural scientists who have ventured outside the lab and into the wild. Psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer and colleagues’ fast-and-frugal-heuristics program provides transparent and accurate, simple quantitative rules for laypeople and experts; and the radical-uncertainty thesis of economists Mervyn King and John Kay shows that important organizations and groups can make truly rational decisions by employing rich, coherent qualitative narratives. I speculate on the way forward for these ideas in decision analysis, and more generally connect to “soft” and “behavioral” operations research.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos, 2024. "Analyzing Decisions Under Uncertainty: Simple Tools of the Heathens," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Florian M. Federspiel & Gilberto Montibeller & Matthias Seifert (ed.), Behavioral Decision Analysis, pages 65-79, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:isochp:978-3-031-44424-1_4
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-44424-1_4
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