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Decision-Making in Early Internationalization: A Structured Expert Judgement Approach

In: Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Michał Zdziarski

    (Warsaw University)

  • Gabriela F. Nane

    (Delft University of Technology)

  • Grzegorz Król

    (Warsaw University)

  • Katarzyna Kowalczyk

    (Warsaw University)

  • Anna O. Kuźmińska

    (Warsaw University)

Abstract

The aim of this chapter is to show how a structured approach to elicit expert judgement (SEJ) can guide the practice of early internationalization. We applied SEJ to forecast some critical issues upon which an innovative start-up wished to base their decision of whether to expand their initial operations in Poland and Czech Republic to Brazil. Sixteen participants of an Executive MBA program acted as experts and underwent the procedure for eliciting their judgements. The performance of experts was quantified in terms of statistical accuracy and informativeness, which were combined to provide a performance-based weight for each expert according to Classical Model. The combination of weighted expert judgements led to improved statistical accuracy and informativeness of the forecast. The procedure demonstrates how entrepreneurs can take advantage of expert knowledge in deciding about risky endeavours when lacking their own experiences and reliable data that can guide their choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Michał Zdziarski & Gabriela F. Nane & Grzegorz Król & Katarzyna Kowalczyk & Anna O. Kuźmińska, 2021. "Decision-Making in Early Internationalization: A Structured Expert Judgement Approach," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Anca M. Hanea & Gabriela F. Nane & Tim Bedford & Simon French (ed.), Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis, chapter 0, pages 503-520, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:isochp:978-3-030-46474-5_23
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-46474-5_23
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