IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/spr/isochp/978-3-030-46474-5_15.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Expert Judgement for Geological Hazards in New Zealand

In: Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Annemarie Christophersen

    (GNS Science)

  • Matthew C. Gerstenberger

    (GNS Science)

Abstract

Expert judgement is important for the short- and long-term assessments of natural hazards in New Zealand, contributing to their risk analyses and informing decision-making. The problems are complex and usually require input from experts from different sub-disciplines. Expert judgement, like all human cognitive processes, is prone to biases. Therefore, we aim to use methods that are robust, transparent, reproducible and help reduce biases. The Classical Model treats expert opinion as scientific data and its performance-based weighting of experts allows us to measure the uncertainty of a quantifiable problem. We have developed a protocol for risk assessment, including structured expert judgement, which is centred around workshop-style interactions between experts to share knowledge. The protocol borrows heavily from the framework for the risk management process of the International Organization for Standardization. We outline seven recent applications of structured judgement, mostly in seismology and volcanology. Most of them use the Classical Model to aggregate the expert judgement. We discuss challenges and insights, concluding that developing an optimal protocol for expert judgement is a continuing journey.

Suggested Citation

  • Annemarie Christophersen & Matthew C. Gerstenberger, 2021. "Expert Judgement for Geological Hazards in New Zealand," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Anca M. Hanea & Gabriela F. Nane & Tim Bedford & Simon French (ed.), Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis, chapter 0, pages 345-371, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:isochp:978-3-030-46474-5_15
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-46474-5_15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:isochp:978-3-030-46474-5_15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.