IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/spr/isochp/978-3-030-46474-5_13.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Characteristics of a Process for Subjective Probability Elicitation

In: Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • John Quigley

    (University of Strathclyde)

  • Lesley Walls

    (University of Strathclyde)

Abstract

The elicitation of subjective probabilities from experts can be critical in determining a course of action when making decisions under uncertainty. A sound process to elicit probabilistic judgement is necessary to ensure that good quality data are used to inform the decision-making, as well as to provide protection to those accountable for the consequences of the determined actions. We synthesise the characteristics of a good elicitation process by critically reviewing those advocated and applied. We compare the processes inherent in the guidance produced by two professional bodies to exemplify the manner in which the characteristics manifest themselves in practice. We examine whether standardisation is meaningful given the maturity of processes for the elicitation of subjective probability.

Suggested Citation

  • John Quigley & Lesley Walls, 2021. "Characteristics of a Process for Subjective Probability Elicitation," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Anca M. Hanea & Gabriela F. Nane & Tim Bedford & Simon French (ed.), Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis, chapter 0, pages 287-318, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:isochp:978-3-030-46474-5_13
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-46474-5_13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rafael Schwarzenegger & John Quigley & Lesley Walls, 2023. "Is eliciting dependency worth the effort? A study for the multivariate Poisson-Gamma probability model," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 237(5), pages 858-867, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:isochp:978-3-030-46474-5_13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.