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An In-Depth Perspective on the Classical Model

In: Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Anca M. Hanea

    (University of Melbourne
    University of Melbourne)

  • Gabriela F. Nane

    (Delft University of Technology)

Abstract

The Classical Model (CM) or Cooke’s method for performing Structured Expert Judgement (SEJ) is the best-known method that promotes expert performance evaluation when aggregating experts’ assessments of uncertain quantities. Assessing experts’ performance in quantifying uncertainty involves two scores in CM, the calibration score (or statistical accuracy) and the information score. The two scores combine into overall scores, which, in turn, yield weights for a performance-based aggregation of experts’ opinions. The method is fairly demanding, and therefore carrying out a SEJ elicitation with CM requires careful consideration. This chapter aims to address the methodological and practical aspects of CM into a comprehensive overview of the CM elicitation process. It complements the chapter “Elicitation in the Classical Model” in the book Elicitation (Quigley et al. 2018). Nonetheless, we regard this chapter as a stand-alone material, hence some concepts and definitions will be repeated, for the sake of completeness.

Suggested Citation

  • Anca M. Hanea & Gabriela F. Nane, 2021. "An In-Depth Perspective on the Classical Model," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Anca M. Hanea & Gabriela F. Nane & Tim Bedford & Simon French (ed.), Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis, chapter 0, pages 225-256, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:isochp:978-3-030-46474-5_10
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-46474-5_10
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    Cited by:

    1. Gayan Dharmarathne & Gabriela F. Nane & Andrew Robinson & Anca M. Hanea, 2023. "Shrinking the Variance in Experts’ “Classical” Weights Used in Expert Judgment Aggregation," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-14, August.
    2. Ren, Xin & Nane, Gabriela F. & Terwel, Karel C. & van Gelder, Pieter H.A.J.M., 2024. "Measuring the impacts of human and organizational factors on human errors in the Dutch construction industry using structured expert judgement," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).

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