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Trends in Growth Since the GFC

In: Macroeconomic Policy in India Since the Global Financial Crisis

Author

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  • Sebastian Morris

    (Goa Institute of Management
    Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad)

Abstract

In this chapter, we being out the estimates of growth from the period since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) using a variety of data—GDP using both the series with 2004–05 as base year and the new series with 2011–12 as base year, besides the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) as well again with both base year. What should have been a simple matter is made difficult by the divergence in the estimates of growth between the two national income series, by as much as 1.5% per annum over the years that they overlap. The problem of overestimation is recognized, the trends in growth are drawn by considering the physical IIP. Growth had been high at around 9% for the 2 years following the GFC when the fiscal stimulus was in place. Thereafter it fell and rose again briefly in 2016–17 to fall again. From late 2018 growth slowed down to reach a low level of just a wee bit above 4%. The manufacturing, and the trade, transport, storage, and communication sectors too show trends which are broadly similar, and the low growth from 2011 to 2012 onwards is supported by the lower rate of gross capital formation in India.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Morris, 2022. "Trends in Growth Since the GFC," India Studies in Business and Economics, in: Macroeconomic Policy in India Since the Global Financial Crisis, chapter 0, pages 23-39, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:isbchp:978-981-19-1276-4_2
    DOI: 10.1007/978-981-19-1276-4_2
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