The Crisis in Indian Agriculture: Genesis, Response and Future Prospects

Last five years have been witness to a spate of farmerFarmers protests in India. These protests which have been witnessed in almost all major states have been on different issues but are unified by a common thread of declining farm incomesIncome and increasing distress in the agrarian economyEconomy. This paper examines the genesis of the crisisCrisis using available data from different sources. The preliminary analysis suggests that the crisisCrisis is a result of long neglect of structural factors by successive governmentsGovernment since the early 1990s. The crisis has been aggravated in recent years by policiesPolicy which have contributed to shifting terms of tradeTerms of trade against agriculture, rising input pricesPrice and declining outputOutput prices. Exogenous shocks such as demonetisation have also contributed to intensification of the crisis. The response of the governmentGovernment in the form of loan waiversLoan waivers and cash transfers is unlikely to resolve the primary contradiction in the agrarian economyEconomy. The recent attempt to withdraw state support to agriculture through various reformsReforms is further likely to worsen the situation of farmersFarmers’ incomesIncome.