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Accelerating Growth in the Future

In: Accelerating Economic Growth

Author

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  • Jakub Growiec

    (SGH Warsaw School of Economics)

Abstract

Will accelerating economic growth carry on into the future? For a better understanding of the current digital era as well as for pursuing informed digital policy, we need a global system of data accounts. Notwithstanding, highly suggestive evidence already exists that the digital revolution has opened a new data dimension in which growth is an order of magnitude faster than growth in GDP. With this in hand, the current chapter attempts to position the coming decades against two polar benchmarks: secular stagnation and technological singularity. Extrapolating past trends suggests that once global population plateaus, world GDP will probably slow down, too. Growth in the digital domain will likely continue, though, possibly producing another technological revolution in energy/hardware or creating artificial general intelligence (AGI). If the latter possibility materializes, it will almost certainly mark the arrival of technological singularity. The probability of a long-standing stagnation or decline is, by contrast, assessed as non-negligible but low.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Growiec, 2022. "Accelerating Growth in the Future," Frontiers in Economic History, in: Accelerating Economic Growth, chapter 0, pages 115-127, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:frochp:978-3-031-07195-9_8
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-07195-9_8
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