IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/spr/dymchp/978-3-319-98714-9_7.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Informational Efficiency and Endogenous Rational Bubbles

In: Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • George A. Waters

    (Illinois State University)

Abstract

In a model where rational bubbles form and collapse endogenously, properly specified tests of return predictability have little power to reject deviations from the efficient markets model. A weighted replicator dynamic describes how agents switch between a forecast based on fundamentals, a rational bubble forecast, and a weighted average of the two. A significant portion of the population may adopt the rational bubble forecast, which is inconsistent with the efficient markets model but satisfies informational efficiency. Tests on simulated data show excess variance in the price and unpredictable returns.

Suggested Citation

  • George A. Waters, 2018. "Informational Efficiency and Endogenous Rational Bubbles," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Fredj Jawadi (ed.), Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics, pages 149-172, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:dymchp:978-3-319-98714-9_7
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-98714-9_7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nguyen, Quynh Nhu & Waters, George A., 2022. "Detecting periodically collapsing bubbles in the S&P 500," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 83-91.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:dymchp:978-3-319-98714-9_7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.