Introduction

This book is about the nature of uncertainty in economics and its implications for the science of economics. The concept of uncertainty is a fundamental of economic thought. We cannot understand meaningful economic phenomena, like the market, the price or profit without recognizing the centrality of uncertainty to the economy and economics. Yet, the modern positivist research principles have neglected the significance of uncertainty, to establish and defend an elegant economic science. The analysis shows that this is illegitimate both from a history of ideas perspective and from a methodological perspective. Positive economic theories are meaningless in the face of uncertainty. Furthermore, if uncertainty is a fundamental of economics, Positive Economic theories are meaningless per se. Therefore, I suggest new Research Principles for the Science of Economics, which acknowledge uncertainty as an economic fundamental. Based on the new principles of economics of coherence and believability I develop the fictional choice approach as a new theory of choice in an economy that is fundamentally uncertain to different degrees.