IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/spr/adspcp/978-3-030-16237-5_14.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

The Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Grain Production and Policy Implications: A CGE Model Analysis

In: Advances in Spatial and Economic Modeling of Disaster Impacts

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Xie

    (Peking University)

  • Qi Cui

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Tariq Ali

    (North China University of Technology)

Abstract

The adverse effects of extreme disasters on crop production, often assessed using crop models or field experiments, may be overestimated as these methods focus on natural impacts while ignoring the behavioral changes of farmers and international traders. This study takes barley as an example and uses GTAP model (a global economic equilibrium model) to showcase the role of the behavioral changes and to assess the economic impact of climate change on crop production after the occurrence of most extreme disasters. The results show that under RCP 8.5, the impact of extreme disasters on barley yields in China and Australia are –12% and –25.8%, respectively. After considering farmers and international traders’ behavioral change, the effects of climate change on barley production in China and Australia are reduced to –0.38% and –3.5%, respectively. Variations in production level mainly depend on the extent of farmers’ ability to expand barley sown area and the severity of government intervention in agricultural exports. In order to reduce the impact of disasters on food supply, it is necessary to give full play to the role of market mechanisms and to reduce government interventions in trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Xie & Qi Cui & Tariq Ali, 2019. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Grain Production and Policy Implications: A CGE Model Analysis," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Yasuhide Okuyama & Adam Rose (ed.), Advances in Spatial and Economic Modeling of Disaster Impacts, chapter 0, pages 359-373, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:adspcp:978-3-030-16237-5_14
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-16237-5_14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:adspcp:978-3-030-16237-5_14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.