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A Re-examination of Long Waves in Aggregate Production Series

In: New Findings in Long-Wave Research

Author

Listed:
  • Rainer Metz

Abstract

The adherents of Kondratieff’s long-wave theory assume the existence of fluctuations in long-term economic growth with an approximate duration of 40–60 years. However, not only the mere existence of long waves is controversial but also — if their existence is accepted — their precise timing. Despite improvements in statistical methods and the availability of richer data, different authors still achieve different and controversial results.

Suggested Citation

  • Rainer Metz, 1992. "A Re-examination of Long Waves in Aggregate Production Series," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Alfred Kleinknecht & Ernest Mandel & Immanuel Wallerstein (ed.), New Findings in Long-Wave Research, chapter 4, pages 80-119, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-1-349-22450-0_4
    DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-22450-0_4
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Gallegati, 2019. "A system for dating long wave phases in economic development," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 803-822, July.
    2. Kriedel, Norbert, 2006. "Long waves of economic development and the diffusion of general-purpose technologies: The case of railway networks," HWWI Research Papers 1-1, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    3. Eirini Ozouni & Constantinos Katrakylidis & Grigoris Zarotiadis, 2015. "Investigating the Long Cycles of Capitalism With Spectral and Cross-Spectral Analysis," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 13(1), pages 7-30.
    4. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jorge Buzaglo, 1999. "A Model of Structural Change and Openness: Applications to the Argentine economy," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 87-109.
    6. G. Silverberg, 2007. "Long Waves: Conceptual, Empirical and Modelling Issues," Chapters, in: Horst Hanusch & Andreas Pyka (ed.), Elgar Companion to Neo-Schumpeterian Economics, chapter 50, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Angelo Reati & Jan Toporowski, 2009. "An economic policy for the fifth long wave," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 62(248-251), pages 143-186.
    8. Reati, Angelo, 1998. "A Long-Wave Pattern for Output and Employment in Pasinetti’s Model of Structural Change," MPRA Paper 1663, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Rainer Metz, 2011. "Do Kondratieff waves exist? How time series techniques can help to solve the problem," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(3), pages 205-238, October.
    10. Dimitri O. Ledenyov & Viktor O. Ledenyov, 2013. "On the accurate characterization of business cycles in nonlinear dynamic financial and economic systems," Papers 1304.4807, arXiv.org.
    11. Reati, Angelo, 1998. "Technological revolutions in Pasinetti's model of structural change: productivity and prices," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 245-262, June.
    12. Marco Gallegati & Massimo Tamberi, 2022. "Long swings in the growth of government expenditure: an international historical perspective," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 192(3), pages 227-248, September.
    13. Jacky Fayolle, 1994. "Le repérage macroéconomique des fluctuations longues : une évaluation critique de quelques travaux modernes," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 51(1), pages 123-166.
    14. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati & James B. Ramsey & Willi Semmler, 2017. "Long waves in prices: new evidence from wavelet analysis," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 127-151, January.
    15. Eric Kemp-Benedict & Emily Ghosh, 2018. "Downshifting in the Fast Lane: A Post-Keynesian Model of a Consumer-Led Transition," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-17, January.
    16. de Groot, Bert & Franses, Philip Hans, 2012. "Common socio-economic cycle periods," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 59-68.

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