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Multi-stage Decisions Under Conditions of Uncertainty

In: Quantitative Methods in Construction Management and Design

Author

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  • J. F. Woodward

    (University of Stirling)

Abstract

It is often the case that a decision has to be taken at some time before the outcome of a future event is known, and it may arise that a whole series of decisions and chance events will present itself to the manager in such a way that he will feel somewhat bewildered by the range of inter-related problems confronting him. Single decisions can readily be assessed by the methods outlined in chapter 8, but where a series of decisions at separate times is encountered then a different technique is called for. The so-called decision tree1,2 provides this method, and can be set out as shown below, illustrating an approach to a simple problem.

Suggested Citation

  • J. F. Woodward, 1975. "Multi-stage Decisions Under Conditions of Uncertainty," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Quantitative Methods in Construction Management and Design, chapter 9, pages 156-167, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-1-349-15579-8_9
    DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-15579-8_9
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