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Uncertainty and the Residual Hypothesis

In: Inflation and Income Distribution in Capitalist Crisis

Author

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  • Sergio Parrinello

Abstract

A well-known criticism raised against the use of probability as a measure of uncertainty can be summarised as follows: it is very doubtful whether a single number (probability) has any meaning when it is attributed to events which are not repeatable or, in general, when the probability assessment is vague for whatever reason. In such cases the reliability of the evidence should also be taken into account in making decisions and assessed as distinct from the determination of probability. Keynes suggested the notion of ’weight of the argument’ as distinct from the notion of probability: ’New evidence will sometimes decrease the probability of an argument, but it will always increase its weight.’1 According to other proposals the reliability of a probability assessment can be measured by the probability of a statement of probability. This idea appears in the work of Reichenbach2 and a similar concept has subseyuently been proposed by J. Marschak3 and criticized by de Finetti.4

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Parrinello, 1989. "Uncertainty and the Residual Hypothesis," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: J. A. Kregel (ed.), Inflation and Income Distribution in Capitalist Crisis, chapter 7, pages 123-132, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-1-349-08833-1_8
    DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-08833-1_8
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