Factors Affecting the Incidence of Long-Term Unemployment

In this chapter, some of the factors which have had most influence on the recent growth in LTU are examined and any causal relationships explored as far as the available data permits. There are a number of key influences which have contributed most to the longer duration patterns of unemployment experienced by most of the 10 countries covered in this book. Foremost among these are the economic conditions, notably the severe recessions of the past decade and the parallel structural changes in industry and the demographic trends already introduced in Chapter 1 which have put extraordinary pressures on the labour markets of the countries concerned. In addition to these, less obvious factors will be discussed such as the potential influence of the payment and extent of unemployment benefits on the patterns of duration, though here there is apparently little evidence to provide firm support for any theory based on causality. Conclusions to date have been far from definitive and sometimes it is difficult to ignore the presence of certain prejudices both political and other, which have been the prime movers behind such results. Some more rational explanation is therefore attempted in this chapter.