Renaissance or Mirage: Can Growth in Africa Be Sustained?

The problem with African countries is not so much that they are incapable of achieving economic growth, but rather they often do not sustain growth momentum.1 There is a tendency by African governments and the donor community to focus on growth enhancing factors, while paying little attention to growth-constraining factors. When constraints are severe, a country grows suboptimally, despite the existence of growth-enhancing factors. While estimates of Africa’s future economic performance have been very bullish, few justifications have been offered for those rosy scenarios.2 In reality, predicting the future of African economies is inherently problematic. There are just too many unknowns and “unknowables” in the region. An example of the unknowables is the unexpected outbreak of the Ebola virus in 2014, which the World Bank estimates could cost at least $800 million in the medium term in the three countries most affected by the epidemic—Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone.3 Another manifestation of the uncertainties in African countries is the fact that no one foresaw the current economic boom in the region. Indeed, recent books and articles were predicting gloom and doom in the region.