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Speeding Up, Slowing Down

In: Industrial Shift: The Structure of the New World Economy

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  • Joe Atikian

Abstract

Progress is steady and gradual as the agricultural and services sectors switch ranks. Global manufacturing holds its share steady except during the Soviet collapse. The rate of change in agriculture correlates to changes in wealth, but predicting future trends based on historic data proves questionable. In a complete reversal from past decades, a falling manufacturing share correlates with rising wealth; the cause is rising productivity. Developing countries can benefit from shifting to manufacturing while advanced countries can benefit by shifting to services. A chart of structural shift can be used as an indicator of political stability. Similarities are revealed between the path of mature industrial economies and today’s rising stars. China’s current path bears a remarkable resemblance to that of Sweden’s of a century ago.

Suggested Citation

  • Joe Atikian, 2013. "Speeding Up, Slowing Down," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Industrial Shift: The Structure of the New World Economy, chapter 4, pages 28-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-1-137-34031-3_4
    DOI: 10.1057/9781137340313_4
    as

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