‘Sailing Ship Effects’ in the Global Automotive Industry? Competition Between ‘New’ and ‘Old’ Technologies in the Race for Sustainable Solutions

Facing the threat of rising fuel prices, a looming shortage of fossil fuels and increasingly stringent regulation to curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, vehicle manufacturers are intensifying their R&D, in particular powertrain technologies. These efforts involve both incremental improvements of the internal combustion engine, and a search for entirely, or partially, new powertrain configurations. New trajectories are emerging in a once-mature industry, and dramatic competition is unfolding. After the oil shocks of the 1970s, carmakers struggled with issues of cost and appropriate technology to combat noxious emissions from petrol engines. This created a short period of uncertainty, but now these manufacturers face the daunting challenge of developing an effective and cost-competitive GHG-reduction trajectory to be sustained for a much longer time.