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Actuarial Forecasts: The Reform’s Distributional Consequences

In: Social Security Reform in Transition Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Charles M. Becker
  • Grigori A. Marchenko
  • Sabit Khakimzhanov
  • Ai-Gul S. Seitenova
  • Vladimir Ivliev

Abstract

Akey issue that is often downplayed concerns the distributional impact of moving from a Solidarity system to an Accumulative system. Perhaps this is not surprising: the initial focus tends to be survival-oriented, identifying forces and problems that could cause the new system to crash, and making sure that the potential fiscal burden during transition is not overwhelming. Nor were distributional issues important in the initial wave of Accumulative system adoptions in Latin America for the simple reason that countries like Chile were not welfare states to begin with. In these countries, there was neither an initial commitment to ensure adequate standards for the poor in general, nor a particular commitment to the elderly, disabled, and rural poor. Thus, the individual account system was something of a bonus (that one paid for) rather than the replacement of a birthright.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles M. Becker & Grigori A. Marchenko & Sabit Khakimzhanov & Ai-Gul S. Seitenova & Vladimir Ivliev, 2009. "Actuarial Forecasts: The Reform’s Distributional Consequences," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Social Security Reform in Transition Economies, chapter 10, pages 201-227, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-61802-2_10
    DOI: 10.1057/9780230618022_10
    as

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