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The Strategic Explanation of Fluctuations

In: Longrun Dynamics

Author

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  • Graeme Donald Snooks

    (Australian National University)

Abstract

Fluctuations are an integral part of the longrun dynamic process. To understand longrun dynamics it is necessary to build a model that can explain the wave-like trajectory of the strategic pathway, which is composed of a hierarchy of fluctuations ranging from 3 to 300 years. A key argument in this chapter is that it is not valid to dismantle the wider dynamic process to separate the ‘cycle’ from the secular trend as is often done by trade-cycle theorists.1 In reality the dynamic process is an indivisible whole, and it must be modelled as such. The longrun ‘cycle’ does not exist any more than does the shortrun ‘cycle’ because there is no real-world mechanism responsible for generating a systematic cyclical motion at any level. The same is true of the longrun trend. To think in this fragmented manner is to distort our understanding of longrun dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Graeme Donald Snooks, 2000. "The Strategic Explanation of Fluctuations," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Longrun Dynamics, chapter 14, pages 186-200, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-59939-0_14
    DOI: 10.1057/9780230599390_14
    as

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