Oil, Growth and Governance in Nigeria

Oil revenues are the single most important feature of the Nigerian economy. They constitute an enormous opportunity for growth. As is evident, over the entire period since they commenced, this opportunity has not been realized. At times of high oil prices the revenue has enabled both ordinary citizens and the state to achieve higher levels of consumption, but these levels have not proved sustainable: windfalls have not been converted into permanently higher levels of income. The disastrous failure of the previous oil boom of 1974–86 is often misunderstood in Nigeria. During the boom, consumption, both public and private, was high, and so living standards were temporarily high. The catastrophic failure of public policy was that the windfall was not transformed into a higher level of sustainable consumption. Indeed, on the contrary, policy during the windfall ensured that future consumption would be lower. This was because during the boom, instead of investing in productive assets, the government borrowed very heavily to finance consumption.