FORESEC: Lessons Learnt from a Pan-European Security Foresight Project

This chapter discusses the methodology and results of a European Commission (EC) funded pan-European security foresight project (FORESEC) conducted in 2008–2009 to help understand how specific international risks might manifest in the lives of European citizens across a set of Member States (MS) of the European Union (EU).1 Through a participatory foresight process, the project facilitated the emergence of a shared vision and coherent and holistic approach to current and future threats and challenges for European security. In doing so, a further aim of the project was to assess whether a shared European concept of security could be identified. The project provides policy support and advice for researchers and decisionmakers, with a view to offering recommendations on European foresight and research priorities. After explaining the methodology employed in the project, the chapter will briefly review some of the outcomes, before critically analysing identified limitations and benefits of using participatory foresight in the field of international security. The chapter finally offers an assessment of the contribution that can realistically be expected from security foresight projects employed to generate policy and research support in international contexts, and makes recommendations about how foresight can be anchored systematically into EU-level security policy and research activities. Using the experience of the FORESEC project, this chapter speaks directly to one of the central ambitions of this book, namely to explore different methods and approaches in dealing with uncertainty and to assess their merits and perils.