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Summary

In: Scenario Thinking

Author

Listed:
  • George Wright

    (Durham Business School)

  • George Cairns

    (RMIT University)

Abstract

As we saw in Chapter 1, many organizations do not see the value of scenario analysis: they view the future as an extrapolation of the past, and so continue with business-as-usual. Other organizations do sense that the future holds threats and opportunities, but can become caught in the psychological defense of a failing strategy — by procrastination, bolstering and buck-passing, as we saw in Chapter 9. Scenario thinking can help individuals think more broadly about the nature of the future and, in this book, we have presented a step-by-step approach to scenario thinking that will enable you to implement the intuitive logics scenario method without the aid of an external facilitator. Our approach has been decision-focused, in that the scenarios built by our method are immediately relevant to a focal issue facing an organization.

Suggested Citation

  • George Wright & George Cairns, 2011. "Summary," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Scenario Thinking, pages 163-164, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-30689-9_10
    DOI: 10.1057/9780230306899_10
    as

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