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Top-Down Probability-Based Cost Estimation

In: Early Project Appraisal

Author

Listed:
  • Knut Samset

Abstract

Cost calculations normally are based on fixed cost estimates.1 A cost calculation may be a simple overview at a high aggregation level with only a few items.2 If so, the uncertainty of the result normally is considerable. A cost calculation also may be meticulously detailed. That reduces uncertainty. But for major projects, the computation often is exhaustive and expensive. It’s also extremely rigid in the sense that considerable revision may be required should fundamental assumptions be changed in the project concept. Hence, early on in the concept phase, detailed cost overviews often are counterproductive.

Suggested Citation

  • Knut Samset, 2010. "Top-Down Probability-Based Cost Estimation," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Early Project Appraisal, chapter 22, pages 215-224, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-28992-5_22
    DOI: 10.1057/9780230289925_22
    as

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