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Rough Analysis of Uncertainty

In: Early Project Appraisal

Author

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  • Knut Samset

Abstract

Uncertainty must be identified before it can be quantified and analyzed. Though there are many methods for analyzing risk, there are few methods for systematic identification of uncertainty (Williams 1995). This is yet another neglected sector in practical project work (Samset 1998). In that respect, the principal aids probably are case studies or scenario techniques. The logical framework method is a type of simple scenario technique that is used to describe and evaluate various strategies. In it, goals in strategies may be varied, and uncertainty components may be associated with specific goals to help develop a picture of project practicality and of how uncertainty may affect realization.

Suggested Citation

  • Knut Samset, 2010. "Rough Analysis of Uncertainty," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Early Project Appraisal, chapter 20, pages 200-208, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-28992-5_20
    DOI: 10.1057/9780230289925_20
    as

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