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Projected Economic Growth in the People’s Republic of China and India: The Role of Demographic Change

In: From Growth to Convergence

Author

Listed:
  • Rod Tyers
  • Jane Golley
  • Iain Bain

Abstract

As the third decade of economic reforms in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) draws to an end, its remarkable growth performance appears almost unstoppable. Between 1995 and 2005, gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita GDP grew at average annual rates of 8.8% and 8.0%, respectively. The central Government’s ambition to raise the level of GDP in 2020 to four times the level in 2000, which requires an annual growth rate of 7.2%, seems well within reach. India’s economic reforms began in earnest in the early 1990s and, like the PRC’s, signal a systemic shift toward an increasingly market-driven economy. Despite the fact that India’s average annual GDP growth performance of 6% in the last decade is enviable by virtually any standards Indian authorities have increased their growth target to 8%, indicating some degree of disappointment with the growth rates achieved in the first decade of reforms (Ahluwalia, 2002). In both countries, there is no question that achieving high and sustainable rates of GDP growth is a major policy objective.

Suggested Citation

  • Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Iain Bain, 2009. "Projected Economic Growth in the People’s Republic of China and India: The Role of Demographic Change," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Fan Zhai (ed.), From Growth to Convergence, chapter 8, pages 243-283, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-25060-4_8
    DOI: 10.1057/9780230250604_8
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    Cited by:

    1. Xinxin Wang & Jingjing Hong & Pengpeng Fan & Shidan Xu & Zhixian Chai & Yubo Zhuo, 2021. "Is China’s urban–rural difference in population aging rational? An international comparison with key indicators," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 1866-1891, September.

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