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Parametric Analysis

In: Making Essential Choices with Scant Information

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  • Philip Pugh

Abstract

Provision of quantitative forecasts of cost is unavoidable, even at the very earliest stages of a project. Commonly such forecasts are excessively optimistic. However, this is not inevitable. Accurate forecasts of this kind are possible, provided suitable techniques are employed. Of particular importance is the fact that the forecaster concentrates upon total costs and avoids being drawn into excessive detail. To descend prematurely into detail is to base forecasts upon what is not yet known and can only be conjectured.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Pugh, 2009. "Parametric Analysis," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terry M. Williams & Knut Samset & Kjell J. Sunnevåg (ed.), Making Essential Choices with Scant Information, chapter 16, pages 331-350, Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-23683-7_16
    DOI: 10.1057/9780230236837_16
    as

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