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Evaluation of Risks in Complex Problems

In: Making Essential Choices with Scant Information

Author

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  • Gregory S. Parnell

    (United States Military Academy)

Abstract

Major investment projects are essential for companies and governments to develop new products and services to maintain the growth of the company or the viability of the government agency. Early in an investment’s life cycle, the identification and evaluation of risk is a critical project management task that will have a direct impact on the future success of the project. In fact, the key to successful project management of high technology projects is the identification, evaluation and management of risks. Unfortunately, decisions have to be made with little information in the front-end decision-making phase of major investment projects. This chapter focuses on the process of developing and assuring the quality of the risk evaluation in the early-stage concept development for major projects. Several qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques are surveyed. A complex investment project, a large data centre design and location decision is used to illustrate some of the risk techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory S. Parnell, 2009. "Evaluation of Risks in Complex Problems," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terry M. Williams & Knut Samset & Kjell J. Sunnevåg (ed.), Making Essential Choices with Scant Information, chapter 12, pages 230-256, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-23683-7_12
    DOI: 10.1057/9780230236837_12
    as

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