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Pensions and Children

In: Designing the European Model

Author

Listed:
  • Seppo Honkapohja

    (Bank of Finland
    EEAG)

  • Frank Westermann

    (EEAG
    University of Osnabrueck)

Abstract

The crisis of the pensions system in Europe is primarily a demographic crisis, resulting from falling fertility and increasing longevity. Fertility rates fell from 2.1 children per female in the 1970s to 1.7 children per female in the 1990s, and they are not expected to pick up again in the future. The problem is compounded by increasing longevity. The ratio of people above 65 to people between 15 and 65 (one way to measure the so-called dependency ratio) in most European countries is expected to more than double, on average, in the EU countries between now and 2050. In percentage terms, such a ratio is expected to rise by at least 60 per cent in the case of the UK, up to 125 per cent in the case of Italy. In 2050 the dependency ratio is projected to be around 70 per cent in Italy and Spain; between 45 and 50 per cent in Germany and France; and just below 40 per cent in the UK. Changes in the dependency ratio are expected to be even more dramatic for the newly acceded countries — currently featuring relatively young populations, but expected to follow the same demographic pattern as the rest of Europe at a very fast pace.

Suggested Citation

  • Seppo Honkapohja & Frank Westermann, 2009. "Pensions and Children," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Seppo Honkapohja & Frank Westermann (ed.), Designing the European Model, chapter 12, pages 399-446, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-23665-3_13
    DOI: 10.1057/9780230236653_13
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    Keywords

    Dependency Ratio;

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