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The Rise of Cloud Computing: Minding Your Ps, Qs and Ks

In: Measuring and Accounting for Innovation in the Twenty-First Century

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  • David Byrne
  • Carol Corrado
  • Daniel Sichel

Abstract

Cloud computing—computing done on an off-site network of resources accessed through the Internet—is revolutionizing how computing services are used. However, because cloud is so new and it largely is an intermediate input to other industries, it is difficult to track in the U.S. statistical system. Moreover, there is a paucity of systematic information on the prices of cloud services. To begin filling this gap, this paper does three things. First, we define the different segments of cloud computing and document its explosive expansion. Second, we develop new hedonic prices indexes for cloud services based on quarterly data for compute, database, and storage services offered by Amazon Web Services (AWS) from 2009 to 2016. These indexes fall rapidly over the sample period, with quickening (and double digit) rates of decline for all three products starting at the beginning of 2014. Finally, we highlight the puzzle of why investment in IT equipment in the NIPAs has been so weak while capital expenditures have exploded for IT equipment associated with cloud infrastructure. We suggest that cloud service providers are undertaking large amounts of own-account investment in IT equipment and that some of this investment may not be captured in GDP.
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Suggested Citation

  • David Byrne & Carol Corrado & Daniel Sichel, 2020. "The Rise of Cloud Computing: Minding Your Ps, Qs and Ks," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Accounting for Innovation in the Twenty-First Century, pages 519-551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13899
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ariel Pakes, 2003. "A Reconsideration of Hedonic Price Indexes with an Application to PC's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1578-1596, December.
    2. repec:aei:rpaper:650501 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Gort, Michael & Klepper, Steven, 1982. "Time Paths in the Diffusion of Product Innovations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 630-653, September.
    4. Dave Byrne & Carol Corrado, 2017. "ICT Prices and ICT Services: What Do They Tell Us About Productivity and Technology," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 33, pages 150-181, Fall.
    5. Kenji Kushida & Jonathan Murray & John Zysman, 2015. "Cloud Computing: From Scarcity to Abundance," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 5-19, March.
    6. David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2018. "How Fast are Semiconductor Prices Falling?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(3), pages 679-702, September.
    7. David Byrne & Carol Corrado, 2020. "Accounting for Innovations in Consumer Digital Services: IT Still Matters," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Accounting for Innovation in the Twenty-First Century, pages 471-517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Tim Erickson & Ariel Pakes, 2011. "An Experimental Component Index for the CPI: From Annual Computer Data to Monthly Data on Other Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1707-1738, August.
    9. Kenji Kushida & Jonathan Murray & John Zysman, 2011. "Diffusing the Cloud: Cloud Computing and Implications for Public Policy," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 209-237, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cho, Jaehan & DeStefano, Timothy & Kim, Hanhin & Kim, Inchul & Paik, Jin Hyun, 2023. "What's driving the diffusion of next-generation digital technologies?," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    2. Bokrantz, Jon & Skoogh, Anders & Berlin, Cecilia & Wuest, Thorsten & Stahre, Johan, 2020. "Smart Maintenance: an empirically grounded conceptualization," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    3. David M. Byrne, 2022. "The Digital Economy and Productivity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Leonard Nakamura & Jon Samuels & Rachel Soloveichik, 2017. "Measuring the “Free” Digital Economy within the GDP and Productivity Accounts," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2017-03, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    5. Tomaso Duso & Alexander Schiersch, 2022. "Let's Switch to the Cloud: Cloud Adaption and Its Effect on IT Investment and Productivity," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2017, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Banal-Estanol, Albert & Seldeslachts, Jo & Vives, Xavier, 2022. "Ownership Diversification and Product Market Pricing Incentives," CEPR Discussion Papers 17686, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Ekaterina Prytkova, 2021. "ICT's Wide Web: a System-Level Analysis of ICT's Industrial Diffusion with Algorithmic Links," Jena Economics Research Papers 2021-005, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    8. Diane Coyle & Wendy Li, 2021. "The Data Economy: Market Size and Global Trade," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2021-09, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    9. Leka, Enxhi, 2022. "What Should Economists Know About the Cloud? A Literature Review on Digital Economics," 31st European Regional ITS Conference, Gothenburg 2022: Reining in Digital Platforms? Challenging monopolies, promoting competition and developing regulatory regimes 265651, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    10. Thanos Athanasopoulos & Burak Dindaroglu & Georgios Petropoulos, 2021. "Stability of collusion and quality differentiation- a Nash bargaining approach," Working Papers 43226, Bruegel.
    11. Anderton, Robert & Jarvis, Valerie & Labhard, Vincent & Morgan, Julian & Petroulakis, Filippos & Vivian, Lara, 2020. "Virtually everywhere? Digitalisation and the euro area and EU economies," Occasional Paper Series 244, European Central Bank.
    12. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Talavera, Oleksandr & Vu, Nam, 2021. "Quality and price setting of high-tech goods," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 69-85.
    13. Mert Demirer & Diego Jimenez-Hernandez & Dean Li & Sida Peng, 2024. "Data, Privacy Laws and Firm Production: Evidence from the GDPR," Working Paper Series WP 2024-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    14. Wim Naudé, 2023. "Late industrialisation and global value chains under platform capitalism," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 50(1), pages 91-119, March.
    15. Goodridge, Peter & Haskel, Jonathan & Edquist, Harald, 2019. "The economic contribution of the “C” in ICT: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 867-880.
    16. Christopher Hooton, 2020. "An Industry-Based Estimation Approach for Measuring the Cloud Economy," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-03, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    17. David M. Byrne & Carol Corrado, 2017. "ICT Services and their Prices: What do they tell us about Productivity and Technology?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-015, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Coyle, Diane & Hampton, Lucy, 2024. "21st century progress in computing," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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