IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/ito/pchaps/256444.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Probabilistic Predictive Modelling for Complex System Risk Assessments

In: Time Series Analysis - New Insights

Author

Listed:
  • Andrey Kostogryzov
  • Nikolay Makhutov
  • Andrey Nistratov
  • Georgy Reznikov

Abstract

The risks assessment is described by the action of estimating the probability distribution functions of possible successes or failures of a system during a given prediction period. Typical probabilistic predictive models and methods for solving risks prediction problems are described, and their classification is given. Priority development directions for risks prediction in standard system processes and their implementation procedures are proposed. The reported examples demonstrate the effects and interpretation of the predictive results obtained. Notes: 1. System is a combination of interacting elements organized to achieve one or more stated purposes (according to ISO/IEC/IEEE 15288 "Systems and software engineering--System life cycle processes"). 2. Risk is defined as the effect of uncertainty on objectives considering consequences. An effect is a deviation from the expected -- positive and/or negative (according to ISO Guide 73).

Suggested Citation

  • Andrey Kostogryzov & Nikolay Makhutov & Andrey Nistratov & Georgy Reznikov, 2023. "Probabilistic Predictive Modelling for Complex System Risk Assessments," Chapters, in: Rifaat Abdalla & Mohammed El-Diasty & Andrey Kostogryzov & Nikolay Andreevich Makhutov (ed.), Time Series Analysis - New Insights, IntechOpen.
    • Handle: RePEc:ito:pchaps:256444
    DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.106869
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/83570
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5772/intechopen.106869?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    prediction; method; model; probability; risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ito:pchaps:256444. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Slobodan Momcilovic (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.intechopen.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.