IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/ito/pchaps/217452.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

On Modelling Extreme Damages from Natural Disasters in Kenya

In: Natural Hazards - Impacts, Adjustments and Resilience

Author

Listed:
  • Carolyne Ogutu
  • Antony Rono

Abstract

We seek to develop a distribution to model the extreme damages resulting from Natural Disasters in Kenya.The distribution is based on the Compound Extreme Value Distribution, which takes into account both the distributions of the frequency of occurrence and magnitude of the events. Threshold modelling is employed, where the extreme damages are identified as the points that lie above a sufficiently high threshold. The distribution of the number of the exceedance is found to be Negative Binomial, while that of the severity is approximated by a Generalised Pareto Distribution. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters, and the log-likelihood is maximised using numerical methods. Probability weighted moments estimation is used to determine the starting values for the iterations. Prediction study is then carried out to investigate the performance of the proposed distribution in predicting future events.

Suggested Citation

  • Carolyne Ogutu & Antony Rono, 2021. "On Modelling Extreme Damages from Natural Disasters in Kenya," Chapters, in: Ehsan Noroozinejad Farsangi (ed.), Natural Hazards - Impacts, Adjustments and Resilience, IntechOpen.
    • Handle: RePEc:ito:pchaps:217452
    DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.94578
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/75981
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5772/intechopen.94578?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural disasters; extreme events; compound distributions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H84 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Disaster Aid

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ito:pchaps:217452. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Slobodan Momcilovic (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.intechopen.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.