The Electrification-Appliance Uptake Gap: Assessing the Off-Grid Appliance Market in Rwanda Using the Multi-Tier Framework

The structure of the electricity system includes universal access to electricity that is adequate, available, reliable, affordable, legal, convenient, healthy, and safe and the efficient (inefficient) use of the electricity. Quality of access also influences clean energy technologies and electrical appliance purchase, ownership, use and perceived value (uptake, hereafter). Also, improved uptake assists in closing systemic gaps between rural and urban areas and grid and off-grid communities. Rwanda is projected to attain full electrification by 2024 (inclusive of all sectors: consumptive, productive and services). In this context, the East African country has articulated support mechanisms for off-grid market players through technical assessments and siting incentives. However, studies that focus on characterising diffusion and uptake of clean energy technologies and electrical appliances in mini-grid sites (market) are crucial to understand the emerging trends in off-grid rural electrification. This chapter contributes to this emerging discourse by proposing a four-fold demand side characterisation approach which (i) conducts a systemic review of literature to identify emerging off-grid themes as they relate to the multi-tier framework (MTF) and vice-versa, (ii) uses existing data to characterise the off-grid market (based on a typical village load), (iii) demonstrates the tariff regime changes using two payment methodologies (willingness to pay (WTP) and ability to pay (ATP)) and (iv) projects the 2024-2032 consumptive energy demand (using a simplified relation between appliance, it's rating and duration of use). Results of this characterisation demonstrate global and local level (glo-cal) literature gaps meriting a localised MTF assessment. The purpose of the localised assessment reported in this Chapter was therefore to understand appliance uptake gaps at the user level. The typical village load is basic (implying low energy demand). Ceteris paribus, higher WTP and ATP by users yield higher tariffs. However, a high ATP is a business sustainability determinant than a high WTP. Because energy consumption is also dependent on how efficiently it is used by those with access, the Chapter discusses appliance efficiency as a partial definition of sustainable energy and also as an example of sustainable energy. Then, demand stimulation pathways addressing wider systemic opportunities at the intersection of the theory of change and the theory of agency and risk reduction in markets, investments and policy (derisking markets, investments and policy) are discussed. The first pathway focuses on women and youth participation in productive use activities. The second pathway highlights strategies for appliance financing such as cost-sharing and micro-credit. The final pathway considers economic activity stimulation which has multiplier effects on energy demand and consequently energy-using appliances uptake. The implications for Sustainable Citizens and markets, investments and policy innovations are contextualised in the Sustainable Energy Utility business model.