Flood Risk Assessment in Housing under an Urban Development Scheme Simulating Water Flow in Plains

Floods are increasingly occurring around the world more often, this implies analysing the risks connected to both human health and the environment, and to infrastructure and properties. The objective is to establish areas susceptible to flooding and their impact on the population through the effects on the unit of analysis "housing". To simulate the floods and map the affected areas, the FluBiDi 2D model was used. Two conditions for one urban zone analysed within the Mexico Valley were compared: (a) with the current hydraulic infrastructure and (b) with the application of rectification of channels. The available information was the discharge getting into the catchment and the total of homes in 2015. Projections for 20-year and 50-year planning horizon were considered, and for the 50 years, an evaluation of a non-structural measure was applied. Results show that under the current infrastructure, the flood simulated had a flow depth of 20 cm, decreasing to 5 cm average with rectification of channels, and a decrement of 45% of the cost of housing risk. Applying the both structural and non-structural measures, the cost of vulnerable housing was reduced until 94%, thus, this a trustworthy tool for decision-making in urban developments.