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Severe Nuclear Accidents and Learning Effects

In: Statistics - Growing Data Sets and Growing Demand for Statistics

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Rose
  • Trevor Sweeting

Abstract

Nuclear accidents with core melting as the ones in Fukushima and Chernobyl play an important role in discussing the risks and chances of nuclear energy. They seem to be more frequent than anticipated. So, we analyse the probability of severe nuclear accidents related to power generation. In order to see learning effects of reactor operators, we analyse the number of all known accidents in time. We discuss problems of data acquisition, statistical independence of accidents at the same site and whether the known accidents form a random sample. We analyse core melt accidents with Poisson statistics and derive future accident probabilities. The main part of the chapter is the investigation of the learning effects using generalised linear models with a frequentist and a Bayesian approach and the comparison of the results.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Rose & Trevor Sweeting, 2018. "Severe Nuclear Accidents and Learning Effects," Chapters, in: Turkmen Goksel (ed.), Statistics - Growing Data Sets and Growing Demand for Statistics, IntechOpen.
    • Handle: RePEc:ito:pchaps:146289
    DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.76637
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    nuclear accidents; learning effect; Poisson distribution; generalised linear model; frequentist approach; Bayesian approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General

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