Analysis of the Role of Exchange Rate Volatility in Monetary Policy Conduction in OECD Countries: Empirical Evidence from Panel-VAR Models

In this study, panel vector autoregression (PVAR) models are employed to examine the relationships between industrial production growth rate, consumer price inflation, short-term interest rates, stock returns and exchange rate volatility. More specifically, I explored the consequences of the dynamics detected by the models on monetary policy implementation for 10 OECD countries. This study indicates that factors that may cause a rise in short-term interest rates with respect to the USA can lead to volatility in exchange rates and thus macroeconomic instability. It is also implied that sustaining macroeconomic growth and decreasing inflation can result in increased export performance, which in turn provides the amount of US dollars to curb volatility in US dollar quotations. Accordingly, this study reveals that high importance should be given to both monetary and non-monetary factors in the open-economy framework to detect the possible impacts on trade and capital flows by dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Due to their exchange rate risk of economic agents, I also suggest that the economic policy makers of these countries had better create a theoretical framework including financial frictions, economic agents' preferences and different shocks to smooth the variations in exchange rates and minimise the negative outcomes of Brexit.